Vulnerabilility and structural handicaps of developing countries

To what extent do developing countries face structural handicaps that can explain their performances and their policy choices ?

A significant work on vulnerability has been done in the LDC program particularly with the development of the Economic Vulnerability Index (EVI). This work deepens and enlarges in the IDI program. On one hand, it is an update of the retrospective EVI, and of some of its components or associated / derived indicators. One the other hand, other indicators are developed in the field of climate change in particular, and a review of the ethnolinguistic fractionalization indicators is proposed.

► An Index of Physical Vulnerability to Climate Change
 
The Ferdi is launching an Index of Physical Vulnerability to Climate Change (PVCCI), “physical” meaning that the index is independent from the current policy, making this index a potential criterion for the geographical allocation of international funds for climate change adaptation. This synthetic indicator combines eight components measuring climatic shocks and exposure of the countries to these shocks. Thanks to the work of Mathilde Closset, Sosso Feindouno, Patrick Guillaumont, Catherine Simonet, the PVCCI has been computed on the basis of data covering the last sixty years for 191 countries and territories. First results show a high heterogeneity between countries, even for countries that belong to the same region.

 

►A Cyclonic activity intensity index (IIC)

We propose a cyclonic activity intensity index (IIC) calculated at the country level which takes into account several parameters such as cyclone wind speed, wind duration but also the part of the territory affected by the cyclonic event. The index is constructed, and it is non-zero, for 128 countries and territories affected by the cyclonic activity recorded over the period 1970-2014 (3915 events).

 

► An Internal Violence Index (IVI), by Sosso Feindouno, Michaël Goujon and Laurent Wagner

The Internal Violence Index (IVI) aims at comparing the amount of violence at the country level for 130 developing countries. The IVI is a composite indicator composed of four clusters - internal armed conflict, criminality, terrorism, and political violence. It is based on quantitative variables only, in contrast to the existing subjective indicators of fragility. Primary data for the 9 variables come from different open source databases (UCDP/PRIO, IDMC, UNODC, GTD, CNTS). Most of the variables relate to the period 2008-2012.

 

► A retrospective Economic Vulnerability Index (EVI): 2015 update

The Economic Vulnerability Index (EVI), built by the United Nations with the contribution of the Ferdi (see LDC program), is made readily available on a retrospective version based on the new definition of the index adopted in 2015 for the LDC Review by the United Nations - DESA - CDP.

Sosso Feindouno and Michaël Goujon have indeed computed an annual retrospective EVI, covering the period 1990-2013 for 145 developing countries. It complements a previous work of Patrick Guillaumont and Joël Cariolle in 2011 who built an annual retrospective EVI covering the period 1975-2008 for 128 developing countries ​based on the 2006-09 UN-CDP definition of the EVI.

Reference to this work is done on the UN/DESA/CDP webpage "LDC data retrieval": http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/policy/cdp/ldc/ldc_data.shtml

December 2014 : Ferdi launches an innovative tool to buid your Economic Vulnerability Index: byind.ferdi.fr

 
► Measuring macroeconomic instability, by Joël Cariolle

Joël Cariolle highlights the benefits of volatility indicators which go beyond simple traditional variance-based indicators emphasizing the magnitude of volatility. Indeed, volatility measures based on the skewness (predominance of positive or negative shocks) and the kurtosis (likelihood of extreme shocks) of a distribution may give additional insights on the effects of economic volatility, particularly relevant for the analysis of specific economic behaviors. Indicators calculation principles, and their main characteristics, are illustrated through the case of export revenues' instability of 134 countries (developed and in development) over the period 1970-2005.
 
 
►Ethnolinguistic fractionalization indicators, by Kelly Labart
 
The indicators of ethnolinguistic fractionalization, frequently used as the measure of an obstacle to development, poses numerous problems of data sources and design. Kelly Labart proposes a critical guide presenting the main available indicators and the critics that have been usually addressed to these indicators. The exogenous nature of these indicators is also questioned in exploring their correlation with geography.

 

Improving Aid Allocation for Small Developing States

Patrick GUILLAUMONT, Vincent NOSSEK, Laurent WAGNER

The level of aid received by small developing states and small island developing states (SIDS) is relatively high, considered either per capita or as...

Vulnerability Indicators for Aid Allocation

Patrick GUILLAUMONT

Any donor has a model for allocating assistance to developing countries. The model is implicit, most often so for bilateral donors, or explicit, most...

An Index of Physical Vulnerability to Climate Change

The Ferdi has created an Index of Physical Vulnerability to Climate Change (PVCCI), “physical” meaning that the index is independent from the current policy, making this index a potential criterion for the geographical allocation of international funds for climate change adaptation.

Cyclonic activity intensity index (IIC)

We propose a cyclonic activity intensity index (IIC) calculated at the country level which takes into account several parameters such as cyclone wind speed, wind duration but also the part of the territory affected by the cyclonic event. The index is constructed, and it is non-zero, for 128 countries and territories affected by the cyclonic activity recorded over the period 1970-2014 (3915 events).

Internal Violence Index (IVI)

The Internal Violence Index (IVI) aims at comparing the amount of violence at the country level for 130 developing countries.

A retrospective Economic Vulnerability Index

The Economic Vulnerability Index (EVI), built by the United Nations with the contribution of the Ferdi (see LDC program), is made readily available on an updated retrospective version.

Measuring macroeconomic instability

Joël Cariolle highlights the benefits of volatility indicators which go beyond simple traditional variance-based indicators emphasizing the magnitude of volatility.

Ethnolinguistic fractionalization indicators

Kelly Labart proposes a critical guide presenting the main available indicators and the critics that have been usually addressed to the ethnolinguistic fragmentation indicators.